瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to lightly short the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 8600 yuan/ton, with a stop - loss price of 8800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract position is 179,536 lots, up 13,001 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5534 lots, up 1949 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 68,930 lots, down 306 lots; the spread between the June - July contracts is - 30 yuan, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 910 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 603,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,600 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.39 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.1 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.11%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Last year, the gross profit margins of JinkoSolar and JA Solar in China were negative, - 10.41% and - 7.98% respectively; Trina Solar had the best gross profit margin performance at 6.36%, followed by LONGi Green Energy at 4.39%. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. Due to the low market conditions, some small and medium - sized enterprises can no longer operate at a loss, and most enterprises in the southwest are in a shutdown state except state - owned enterprises. The photovoltaic industry is affected by the industry self - discipline agreement, with low operating rates and reduced demand for industrial silicon. The price of organic silicon has declined again, and related enterprises have further reduced production, resulting in lower demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy industry has shown mediocre performance in the first quarter, with no obvious improvement in demand, and export volume has declined year - on - year [2]