石油化工行业周报：OPEC+维持增产，油价整体回落-20250507

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the oil and petrochemical sector [5] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have seen a decline recently, with Brent crude settling at approximately $61.29 per barrel, down about 6.94% week-on-week and approximately 19.24% year-to-date. WTI crude settled at about $58.29 per barrel, down about 6.06% week-on-week and approximately 17.18% year-to-date [22][23] - The upstream sector is expected to benefit from a stable high price range for international oil, which is favorable for upstream oil and gas companies [29] - The midstream refining sector shows potential for performance recovery, with significant increases in price spreads for various refined products [34] - The polyester terminal sector indicates a recovery potential for long filament enterprises due to inventory declines and widening price spreads [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 0.25% during the week of April 28 to April 30, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about 0.49%, indicating a relative outperformance of 0.24 percentage points [16] - Leading stocks included Guangju Energy (+8.07%), Compton (+7.32%), and Shenyang Chemical (+5.25%), while laggards included Hongtian Co. (-15.65%) and ST Haiyue (-7.33%) [20][21] Upstream Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America has decreased week-on-week, with a more significant year-on-year decline. However, global drilling platform numbers are expected to have room for growth [30] - EIA forecasts indicate that U.S. crude oil production will maintain growth, reaching 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [31] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 63 yuan/ton and 56 yuan/ton, respectively [34] - The price spreads for diesel and gasoline in Singapore have widened, indicating a potential recovery for refining companies [34] Polyester Terminal Sector - As of May 4, the POY price spread was approximately 1,081 yuan/ton, with overall inventory levels declining [42] - The polyester bottle chip market price increased to approximately 5,733 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for recovery in this segment [48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Focus on energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for their efforts in oil and gas exploration and green transformation [55] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to rising global upstream capital expenditures [55] 3. Investment in companies like Baofeng Energy and New Natural Gas, driven by energy security and policy support [55] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical for new capacity planning and material project layouts [55]