Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-07 09:40Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 7, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5598, down 0.39%. The ferro - silicon 2506 contract closed at 5430, up 0.04%. The iron alloy production profit is negative, and the spot production enthusiasm is low. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. For ferro - silicon, the steel demand expectation is generally weak. Manganese - silicon should be treated as oscillating weakly, and ferro - silicon should be treated as oscillating. Investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Manganese - silicon (SM): The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,598 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the position was 660,341 hands, up 5,988 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 27,105 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 123,166, down 1,405; the basis of the main contract was 12 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - Ferro - silicon (SF): The closing price of the SF main contract was 5,430 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the position was 461,065 hands, up 21,684 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 10,455 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 17,881, up 19; the basis of the main contract was 120 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Manganese - silicon: The price of Inner Mongolia FeMn68Si18 was 5,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guizhou's was 5,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Yunnan's was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,602.42 yuan/ton, down 94.58 yuan [2]. - Ferro - silicon: The price of Inner Mongolia FeSi75 - B was 5,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai's was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia's was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Manganese - silicon: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 405.50 million tons, up 32.80 million tons [2]. - Ferro - silicon: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon: The enterprise start - up rate was 40.74%, down 0.85 percentage points; the supply was 182,805 tons, down 3,255 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 181,800 tons, up 24,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 1.17 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 128,211 tons, up 1,462 tons [2]. - Ferro - silicon: The enterprise start - up rate was 30.75%, down 0.16 percentage points; the supply was 99,000 tons, up 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 83,600 tons, down 11,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 0.82 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 20,560.40 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 84.35%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.03%, up 0.41 percentage points; the monthly crude steel output was 92.8414 million tons, up 16.8722 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - When China's steel exports are at the level of 60 - 70 million tons, there are few trade frictions, indicating that the world steel market needs Chinese steel. - In April, the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) was 50.7, 1.2 percentage points lower than in March, reaching the lowest in seven months in the expansion range. - In Q1 2025, China's steel exports continued the "one increase and three decreases" trend of last year, and imports continued the pattern of decreasing volume and increasing price. - South Korea imposed a five - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel coils from Vietnam [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market - Manganese - silicon: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 110 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 420 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender quantity decreased month - on - month [2]. - Ferro - silicon: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 70 yuan/ton [2]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - For both manganese - silicon and ferro - silicon, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages [2].