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友邦保险(01299):首次覆盖:百年寿险,砥砺前行
01299AIA(01299) 华西证券·2025-05-07 09:51

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Insights - AIA Group, a century-old life insurance giant, has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with a record high after-tax operating profit of 6.605billionin2024,reflectingayearonyearincreaseof6.36.605 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1]. - The company has a strong capital adequacy ratio of 257% in 2024, significantly exceeding regulatory requirements, indicating robust financial health [1][34]. - The new business value increased by 18% year-on-year to 4.712 billion, with a value rate of 54.5%, showcasing strong growth momentum [1]. Summary by Sections 1. A Century of AIA, A Model of Life Insurance - AIA Group is the largest independent listed life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region, with operations in 18 markets [14]. - The company has a diversified ownership structure, with major shareholders being institutional investors, which supports effective management decision-making [20][22]. 2. High-Quality Agents and High-Value Products Build Competitive Advantage - The agent channel has been optimized, with a new business value growth of 15.2% in 2024, and a new business value rate of 67.6%, maintaining industry leadership [2]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with leading banks in the Asia-Pacific region, enhancing its reach to high-value customers [2]. 3. Focus on the Asia-Pacific Market to Share Development Dividends - AIA's strategy in mainland China, known as "Split Reform Subsidiary," has accelerated market expansion, achieving a new business value rate of 56.1% in 2024, significantly above the industry average [3]. - The Hong Kong market has shown recovery, with a 23% year-on-year increase in new business value, regaining its top position in the group's regional contributions [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve insurance revenue of 20.841billion,20.841 billion, 22.436 billion, and 24.168billionfor2025,2026,and2027respectively,withcorrespondingnetprofitsof24.168 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.112 billion, 7.701billion,and7.701 billion, and 8.354 billion [4]. - The average PEV valuation since 2016 has been around 2.1x, higher than domestic insurance companies, indicating a strong market position [4].