多元资产月报（2025年5月）：持续应对海外政策的不确定性-20250507

Group 1: Domestic Economic Overview - The domestic economy showed signs of recovery in Q1, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing last year's growth of 5.0% [5][12] - Industrial production remained robust, with March's industrial added value increasing by 7.7% year-on-year, and high-tech industries seeing a growth rate of 10.7% [12][13] - Fixed asset investment in the first three months rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing improvements [13][19] Group 2: Consumption and Trade - Retail sales in March grew by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging consumption, particularly in home appliances and furniture [13][19] - Exports continued to accelerate, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.8% in the first quarter, and a notable 12.4% increase in March alone [15][16] - High-tech product exports maintained a strong growth rate of 7.9%, indicating a positive trend in trade [15] Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The government bond issuance supported social financing growth, with March's new social financing reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan year-on-year [19] - The monetary supply showed stability, with M2 growth holding steady at 7.0% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable liquidity environment [19] Group 4: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to remain resilient due to supportive domestic policies and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [5][12] - The bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations as it awaits clearer direction, with a focus on opportunities related to interest rate spreads [5][19] - The RMB is likely to appreciate slightly due to favorable factors such as reduced external disturbances and enhanced domestic stability [5][19]