5/7国新办新闻发布会简评：止盈情绪加剧，债市不空

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May 2025, with a high supply of bonds and a likely loose capital situation, and considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not expected to decline. The central bank's announcements of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7, 2025, are in line with market expectations, with the interest rate cut slightly exceeding expectations. The short - end of the bond market prices in the downward shift of policy interest rates, while the long - end prices in profit - taking and the stock - bond seesaw effect [2]. - The implementation of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the promotion of science and technology innovation bonds is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market and the real economy. Reserve requirement ratio cuts can provide long - term liquidity, stabilize bank net interest margins, and promote credit expansion. Interest rate cuts support employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The development of science and technology innovation bonds will help accelerate scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Monetary Policy - Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut: A 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut will provide 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance will be reduced from 5% to 0%. This can release low - cost long - term funds, stabilize bank net interest margins, and guide banks to increase credit supply [2]. - Interest Rate Cut: The 7 - day OMO rate will be cut by 10BP to 1.4%, and it is expected to drive a 10BP decline in LPR. The central bank will also lower the re - lending rate and the provident fund lending rate, reflecting a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2]. - Structural Monetary Policy Tools: The interest rate of structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, from 1.75% to 1.5%. The PSL rate for policy - based financial institutions will be cut from 2.25% to 2%. A 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care special re - lending facility will be established. The quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - lending will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and the quota for agricultural and small - business re - lending will be increased by 300 billion yuan [2]. - Reasons for Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts: The central bank's goal of stabilizing the exchange rate has been achieved in the short - term. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate has returned to 7.2 since late April. Fundamental pressures may gradually emerge, with the impact of tariff policies on external demand and the economy likely to show in Q2, as indicated by the decline of the PMI in April. Tariffs have entered the substantive negotiation stage, and the central bank is taking preemptive policy actions to deal with potential market fluctuations [2]. Science and Technology Innovation Bond Risk - Sharing Tools - The central bank has promoted the development of science and technology innovation bonds. Financial institutions, science and technology enterprises, and private equity investment institutions are supported to issue such bonds. The relevant policies and preparations for the "science and technology board" of the bond market are basically completed. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. This is an effective follow - up to the Politburo meeting in April and is expected to boost scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. Outlook on the Bond Market - In May, with a high supply of bonds, the capital situation is likely to remain loose. Considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not bearish in the short - term. After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the short - end bond yields usually decline by 1 - 4BP on the next trading day, and then may rise in 5 - 10 trading days. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors can consider trading on dips and pay attention to ultra - long - term bonds and short - duration assets [2].