YANTAI TAYHO(SZ:002254) Orient Securities·2025-05-07 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Views - The company's aramid business is experiencing steady growth, while the spandex segment is under pressure due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and price competition [4][10]. - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 222 million, 292 million, and 361 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the aramid market, which has a projected compound annual growth rate of 5-10% globally, despite current price competition [10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,925 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 3,929 million CNY in 2024, and projected revenues of 4,494 million CNY in 2025, 4,938 million CNY in 2026, and 5,359 million CNY in 2027, indicating a growth trajectory [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to 90 million CNY, before rebounding to 222 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 147.9% [7][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 16.0% in 2024 to 21.4% by 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [7][10]. Segment Performance - The spandex segment is projected to face continued challenges, with a forecasted gross margin of -11.86% in 2024, while the aramid segment is expected to see a 13% increase in sales volume [10]. - The company is advancing its aramid-coated diaphragm industrialization process, with pilot projects already in production and full-scale production expected to begin in 2025 [10].