冠通研究：刚需跟进，盘面增仓上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The continuous rise in the futures market stimulated market demand. The supply side saw a small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cut, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side showed cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation and weak industrial demand. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors, with high expectations but no official confirmation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices rose and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The supply side had small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cuts, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side had cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation, and industrial demand was still for immediate needs. The composite fertilizer factory's terminal sales were poor, and the inventory was high. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1900 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1886 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. The trading volume increased by 24,618 lots to 256,052 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 18,614 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,831 lots [2]. - Spot: Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1820 - 1850 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On May 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,970, the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. The basis of the September contract widened to 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply Data: On May 7, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,900 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.7% [11]. - Enterprise Inventory Data: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126,100 tons from last week, a 10.58% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 5.82 days, a decrease of 1.65 days from the previous period, a 22.09% decrease [12].