复盘和展望：贸易战如何影响银行股？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][52]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of the trade war on the banking sector, indicating that as tariff shocks become evident, capital market trading will return to fundamentals. It reviews the banking industry's performance during the 2018-2019 trade conflicts and suggests that while there are similarities, the current trade war is not entirely comparable to the previous one [3][7][8]. - The report predicts that the current trade conflict will likely lead to a more severe impact on the banking sector, but due to China's economic structural transformation and enhanced response capabilities, the overall impact on bank performance will be limited. It emphasizes that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [5][37][48]. Summary by Sections Trade Conflict Review - The 2018-2019 trade conflict involved a cycle of "tariff increase - countermeasures - negotiation relief - escalation," affecting various sectors, including finance and technology. The trade conflict led to a 12.5% year-on-year decline in China's exports to the U.S. in 2019, prompting a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4][13][18]. - In 2019, China's GDP growth was 6.1%, within the target range of 6.0%-6.5%, indicating a stabilizing economy. The banking index showed absolute returns but lacked excess returns, with significant individual stock performance variations [4][25][28]. Current Trade War Impact - The current trade war is characterized by more intense tariff negotiations, with potential spillover into financial and technological conflicts. However, China's ability to respond has significantly improved due to years of economic restructuring [5][8][47]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector will face short-term challenges in scale growth and asset quality, but overall performance will remain stable due to high provisioning coverage and effective risk management practices [37][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector may not achieve excess returns but is expected to provide absolute returns. It highlights high-growth banks such as Changshu Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank as favorable investment options, while also recommending Jiangsu Bank for its stable performance and high dividend yield [6][44][48].