2025年5月策略观点：寻找确定性-20250507

Group 1 - The resilience of the index comes from internal certainty, with April A-share market showing a rebound after initial declines, driven mainly by internal policies and medium to long-term funding certainty [3][6][29] - Future changes may become complex, with increasing pressure on the US economy and inflation due to tariff policies, alongside a declining dollar index and record high US debt maturities [3][36][46] - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and industries with high Q1 2025 performance, such as non-ferrous metals and home appliances [3][36][68] Group 2 - The market style is expected to rotate between defensive and growth styles, with current policies focusing on stability and potential weak market sentiment [3][36] - The Hong Kong market also shows resilience, with significant inflows from mainland investors and improved valuation due to tariff impacts [3][36] - Domestic policies are anticipated to stimulate investment and real estate, with historical data indicating a significant increase in local government bond issuance [58][59]