宏观经济点评报告：当美国衰退成为“共识”之后

Economic Activity Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a preemptive surge in activity due to tariffs, characterized by "grabbing consumption," "grabbing imports," "grabbing inventory," and "grabbing equipment investment" [2] - Recent data indicates that all sectors of the U.S. economy are in a state of heightened activity, which may mask underlying cyclical weaknesses [2] - The overall economic cycle is likely to show systemic weakening across all sectors, with no single sector exhibiting significant vulnerabilities [23] Consumption and Investment Trends - Private sector final purchases remain relatively robust, but this growth is largely driven by preemptive demand for goods, particularly durable goods [4] - Consumer spending is expected to weaken further, as income growth, particularly in non-farm payrolls, is showing signs of slowing down [6] - The wealth effect supporting consumer resilience is diminishing, with total wealth growth for U.S. households expected to slow down significantly in Q1 2025 [9] Labor Market Dynamics - Non-farm payroll data shows healthy job growth, but the demand for labor may face challenges as companies respond to tariff impacts [15] - Job vacancy numbers have been declining, indicating a cautious approach from businesses regarding hiring amid tariff uncertainties [20] Risks and Policy Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies poses significant risks to economic stability, with potential for increased volatility [24] - A broader range of policy changes since Trump's administration is contributing to the economic downturn, suggesting that tariff perspectives alone may not fully explain the situation [23] - Future recovery from recession will require not only a resolution to the tariff conflict but also a natural decline in interest rates and inflation, alongside successful domestic reforms [23]