沪铅日度报告：回顾周期：日度下跌-20250507

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai Lead, written on May 6, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Due to the weak performance on the demand side, there is a possibility of continued correction in lead prices in the short term [3] Group 3: Macro Aspect - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.8 from the previous value, reaching the lowest level in the past three months [3] Group 4: Supply Side - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with an increasing operating rate, but there was a month - on - month production cut in April due to partial maintenance; the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries has limited the supply of recyclers, causing some smelters to suspend production due to cost issues and thus reducing the operating rate [3] Group 5: Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for consumption. The willingness to stock up before the holiday is low, downstream purchases are limited, and the order volume is relatively low [3] Group 6: Inventory Aspect - As of April 30, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 44,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from April 28 and 4,500 tons from April 24 [3] Group 7: Technical Aspect - From the hourly line, the futures price has fallen below the oscillation range; from the daily line, the price has fallen below the support level [3]