Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-07 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633) [2] Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure, but domestic and overseas growth remains certain [1] - The company reported a total sales volume of 256,800 vehicles in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32% [5] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.751 billion yuan, a decline of 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to benefit from new vehicle launches and increased intelligence features, which may drive sales growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 212.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 12.841 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.50 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 19.2% [6] - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and external factors, with new estimates of 212.7 billion yuan, 252.8 billion yuan, and 299.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is launching multiple new models and significant updates to existing models, which are expected to drive domestic sales growth [7] - The overseas market is also anticipated to see growth with the upcoming production at the Brazil factory and the introduction of new models [7] - The report suggests that the company can mitigate the impact of increased scrap taxes in Russia through local production and pricing strategies [7]