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橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围回暖,能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-07 13:53

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and closing flat. The price closed slightly up 0.00% at 14,810 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 195 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the supply pressure in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas increased, but domestic tire enterprises saw an increase in the motivation of operating rate. With both supply and demand increasing, the rubber price maintained a stable and volatile pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and slightly closing up. The price closed slightly up 0.09% at 2,239 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 74 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the improvement in the supply - demand structure of the methanol market was limited, the destocking of social inventory might be coming to an end, and the external supply was expected to increase. Considering the potential macro - risks, methanol maintained a weak pattern [6]. - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rebounding from an oversold situation, and closing sharply up. The price closed sharply up 2.40% at 460.8 yuan/barrel. Although the US non - farm payroll data and price index showed signs of improvement, leading to an increase in the expected number of Fed rate cuts throughout the year, the US debt crisis in June was approaching, and the "gray rhino" effect might trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. At the same time, OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand was expected to be weak. With bearish factors dominant, the continued rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices was expected to face greater pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat trend. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [9][10]. - Methanol: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons, and a significant increase of 210,100 tons compared with 1.6889 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 29.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 7.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 85.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.09%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.63%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 239 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 87 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 572 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 123,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China totaled 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons or 0.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 35,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 55,600 tons compared with 365,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12][14]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 483, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 23 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.36 million barrels per day. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels and a significant decrease of 10.521 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 25.019 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 397.5 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 468,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Since April 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend, and the market's long - buying power has continued to decline. As of April 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 177,209 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 6,254 contracts and a significant increase of 10,622 contracts or 6.38% compared with the March average of 166,587 contracts. At the same time, as of April 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 106,722 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,080 contracts and a significant decrease of 79,918 contracts or 42.82% compared with the March average of 186,640 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,460 yuan/ton | -32 yuan/ton | 2,239 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | +221 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.8 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | -37.2 yuan/barrel | -1.9 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22][25][27][29]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].