预期现实博弈，钢矿震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.19%. The supply - demand pattern is stable, with pre - holiday demand surging and weekly apparent demand increasing significantly. However, the improvement may not be sustainable, and supply remains high. The steel price is under pressure, but macro - level positive factors have been realized. The price is expected to continue low - level oscillatory movement, and demand changes should be monitored [4][37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.34%. Current demand is acceptable, supporting a stable supply - demand pattern. But supply is high, and demand is expected to weaken. The price is under pressure, and with overseas risks and the expectation of reduction policies, it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4][38]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore had a wide - range oscillation with a daily increase of 0.35%. Strong demand supports the ore price, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved due to high supply and concerns about demand peaking. The price is under pressure, but with improved market sentiment, the downward drive is weak. It is expected to continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [4][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Central bank's measures for the real estate market: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market. It also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [6]. - New contract signing plans of nine major construction central enterprises: In 2024, they completed a total of 16.59 trillion yuan in new contract signings, and the plan for 2025 is 17.06 trillion yuan. The 2024 revenue was 7.11 trillion yuan, and the 2025 plan is 7.28 trillion yuan [7]. - Australia's anti - dumping sunset review investigation: Australia launched a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less on May 5, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - Black metal spot quotes: The report provides spot prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, billet, scrap, iron ore powder, and related indices [9]. Futures Market - Futures prices of main contracts: It shows the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures contracts [11]. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes and total inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory), and related historical data [14][16][24]. - Iron ore inventory: Covers charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory (including inventory changes and seasonal data), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [21][22][25]. - Steel mill production: Presents charts of 247 - steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [31][33][35]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply is at a high level, and although pre - holiday demand increased, its sustainability is uncertain. With macro - level positives, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and demand changes should be watched [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand are both rising, but demand is expected to weaken. With overseas risks and reduction policy expectations, the price will maintain low - level oscillation, and steel mill production should be focused on [38]. - Iron ore: Demand is strong, but supply is also high, and there are concerns about demand peaking. With improved market sentiment, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [39].