Report Overview - Report Title: Corn Starch Daily Report - Report Date: May 7, 2025 - Report Author: Liu Dayong 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is in a bottom - shock pattern with strong support. China has imposed additional tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn remains low. The spot price of corn in the north is stable, while that in the northeast and north China is rising. The supply is low, and the demand from the breeding industry is weak. It is expected that the corn price will continue to rise in the short - term, with a narrow - range shock in May. In the long - term, policy - related grain auctions may occur after the price difference between corn and wheat narrows [5][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a long - term loss state and many have shut down. It is expected that the short - term 07 starch contract will be in a strong - shock pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C2601 | 2283 | -5 | -0.22% | 29,298 | 74.98% | 61,948 | 11.91% | | C2505 | 2332 | 7 | 0.30% | 4,027 | -63.16% | 26,574 | -37.00% | | C2509 | 2379 | 0 | 0.00% | 163,043 | 35.20% | 387,970 | 5.88% | | CS2601 | 2720 | 1 | 0.04% | 1,505 | 212.24% | 3,278 | 30.44% | | CS2505 | 2715 | 26 | 0.96% | 2,660 | -77.59% | 20,776 | -21.54% | | CS2509 | 2811 | 7 | 0.25% | 10,192 | 54.80% | 34,491 | 7.23% | [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao and Shouguang has increased by 20 yuan, and the price in Guangdong Port has increased by 10 yuan. The basis varies in different regions, ranging from - 289 to 105 [3]. - Starch: The price of Yufeng and Hengren Industry and Trade has increased by 20 and 40 yuan respectively. The basis also shows different values in different regions, from - 15 to 235 [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn Inter - period Spreads: For example, C01 - C05 is - 49 with a change of - 12, C05 - C09 is - 47 with a change of 7 [3]. - Starch Inter - period Spreads: CS01 - CS05 is 5 with a change of - 25, CS05 - CS09 is - 96 with a change of 19 [3]. - Cross - variety Spreads: CS09 - C09 is 432 with a change of 7, CS01 - C01 is 437 with a change of 6 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is in a bottom - shock pattern with strong support. China has imposed additional tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn remains low. The price of Brazilian corn in July is 2098 yuan. The spot price in the north is stable, while that in the northeast and north China is rising. The supply is low, and the demand from the breeding industry is weak. It is expected that the corn price will continue to rise in the short - term, with a narrow - range shock in May. In the long - term, policy - related grain auctions may occur after the price difference between corn and wheat narrows [5][8]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 143.6 million tons, an increase of 6.0 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 3.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.43%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a long - term loss state and many have shut down. It is expected that the short - term 07 starch contract will be in a strong - shock pattern [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 07 corn contract in China will have a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Arbitrage: Hold the position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn. Wait and see for now on widening the spread between 07 corn and starch at low levels [14]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot can sell corn call options and hold the position [16]. - Option Contract Data: For example, on May 7, 2025, the C2509 - P - 2380.DCE option has an underlying price of 2379, a closing price of 50.00, and an IV of - 8.5 [16]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contract [18][21][23].
玉米淀粉日报-20250507
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-07 14:48