棕油续跌、棉花反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price continues to decline due to increased production and inventory expectations, weak downstream demand, and increased domestic imports [1][2]. - The cotton price rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound [1][17]. - The soybean meal price fluctuates narrowly, and there is a downward pressure due to the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans [1][7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract expands its decline, with strong supply and weak demand in the origin. The production in Malaysia in April increased by 17% - 25%, and it is expected to increase by 60% at the beginning of May, while the export only increased by 3% - 5%. Domestic purchases are increasing, and the demand is suppressed by the inverted soybean - palm oil price difference. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 7850 and resistance at 7974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rebounds. There is a post - holiday restocking demand, and the short - term supply is tight. But the supply will improve as the oil mill's operating rate rises. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7738 and resistance at 7812 [3]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly and remains in a downward trend. The Sino - US meeting news boosts US soybeans, but the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans limits the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2896 and resistance at 2930 [4][7]. Corn - The corn 2507 contract rises and then falls, with high - level fluctuations. The low remaining grain in the producing area, strong downstream demand, and falling port inventory support the price. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 2365 and resistance at 2400 [8]. Live Pigs - The live pigs 2509 contract rebounds slightly but the downward trend remains. The high inventory in the breeding end and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to this situation. The strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies, with support at 13900 and resistance at 14050 [10]. Sugar - The sugar 2509 contract declines in a volatile manner. The expected increase in production in Brazil and Thailand, falling international raw sugar prices, and the opening of the domestic import profit window lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 5856 and resistance at 5912 [13]. Eggs - The eggs 2506 contract rebounds slightly after a sharp decline, but the downward trend remains. The high egg - laying hen inventory, slow culling progress, and weak demand after the May Day holiday cause this. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2902 [14][18]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound. The strategy is to close short positions, and go long if the price stabilizes above the 20 - day moving average, with support at 12700 and resistance at 13000 [17]. Apples - The apples 2510 contract declines in a volatile manner. Although the low cold - storage inventory and possible autumn production reduction support the price, the limited upward momentum and active long - position closing lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average, with support at 7820 and resistance at 7930 [19]. Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 2507 contract continues to rebound. The low remaining domestic soybeans and rising local prices drive the futures price up. The strategy is to hold a light - long position, with support at 4204 and resistance at 4300 [21].