豆粕生猪：成交小幅回暖，豆粕止跌震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and DCE live hog futures prices showed a mixed trend, with some contracts rising and some remaining stable. The CBOT soybean futures price declined. The domestic soybean meal spot price is expected to slow down its downward adjustment in the short - term and resume its decline in late May. The live hog market is currently in a state of short - term supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [1][2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes showing mixed trends. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.76 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.53% to 1041 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be local to scattered showers in the western and eastern regions from Wednesday to Friday, and mainly dry weather on Saturday. Temperatures will be close to or higher than normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and close to or lower than normal from Friday to Saturday. More precipitation may occur next week, and the western region may be wetter than the eastern region [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On May 2, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 523 million tons, up 18 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of soybean meal was 8 million tons, up 1 million tons week - on - week. On May 6, the soybean meal transaction volume of major oil mills was 10.21 million tons, an increase of 7.34 million tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of oil mills was 47.95%, an increase of 3.25% from the previous day. The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased on May 7. The daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises on May 6 was 124,720 heads, up 0.75% from the previous day. Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and the global and US soybean ending stocks in relevant periods are provided, with slight differences from the USDA's April estimates [5][6]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures declined due to concerns about international trade tensions and the drop in soybean oil futures. The Brazilian soybean harvest is over, and its production in the 2024/25 season reached a record high. The domestic DCE soybean meal main M09 contract stopped falling and stabilized. The soybean meal spot price continued to decline, but the decline may slow down in the short - term and resume in late May [16]. - Live Hogs: The supply side shows a significant decline in the average slaughter weight in the northern region, and the overall concentrated supply node of the breeding end is approaching. The demand side has poor terminal sales. The live hog market is in a short - term state of supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [17].