中国央行黄金储备继续增加，美联储5月利率会议偏鹰

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is affected by factors such as China's increased gold reserves, the Fed's interest - rate decision, and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the short term, gold is in a volatile phase, while in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold [12]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest - rate level and remaining concerned about inflation. As a result, the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to the Fed's continued suspension of rate cuts and the long - term nature of tariff games [18]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support; steel prices are in a volatile state; and the container shipping market is expected to be volatile with a wait - and - see approach recommended [20][35][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's interest - rate decision (upper limit) on May 7 was 4.5%, with high unemployment and inflation risks rising. China's gold reserves increased by 2.18 tons in April [11][12]. - In the short term, Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's non - eagerness to cut rates are bearish for gold, but in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and gold is in a volatile phase [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine is considering using the euro instead of the US dollar as a reference currency. The EU will announce further measures against US tariffs. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [13][14][15]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation released positive signals, but the tariff game is expected to be long - term [18]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term [18]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased significantly on May 7. The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on May 7 increased by 293% compared to the previous trading day [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [20][22]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Before the release of the USDA's May supply - demand report, analysts estimated the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 24/25 season and the ending stocks of US soybeans. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in forward basis contracts [23][24]. - The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile, and the spot price still has room to fall [26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch continued to increase, and the inventory accumulated. The loss continued, and the operating rate is expected to decline later [27]. - The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continued to decline. The market is worried about the import reserve auction, which may suppress the futures price in the short term [29]. - The 07 contract of corn should be dealt with from a medium - term bullish perspective, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads are recommended [29]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugarcane area affected by drought in the Guangxi Sugar Group reached 175.53 million mu. The sugar mills in Yunnan and Hainan have different production and sales situations [30][31][32]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the second quarter of 2025, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of sugar mills [33]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Australia launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars. The steel price was volatile, and the market expectation was weak, but the fundamentals provided support [34][35]. - It is recommended to hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude for short - term unilateral trading and use a rebound hedging strategy for spot trading [36]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope sold 1.596 million pigs in April 2025. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly before the festival and increased after May Day [37][38]. - It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous short positions can be held flexibly [39]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market was weakly stable. The second round of coke price increase was put on hold, and the market was waiting and seeing [40]. - In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile, and in the long term, they are expected to be weak and volatile [40]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified the regulations on futures registered brands, but polysilicon was not affected. There were rumors of transactions of rod - shaped silicon by leading enterprises, and the industry may discuss production control to support prices [40][41]. - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the supply - side changes and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations in May - June. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and long positions on the left side can be considered [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of organic silicon monomers increased and decreased in different regions. The demand was weak, and the price of industrial silicon fell below 9000 yuan/ton [44]. - It is recommended to partially close the previous short positions and not to go long on the left side. Wait for clear signals to consider bottom - fishing on the right side [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei will focus on high - nickel and doped medium - nickel high - voltage ternary precursor products. The price of nickel was volatile, and the cost of nickel - iron production was high, with a high probability of production reduction [45][47]. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band trading within the range [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Goldman Sachs raised the copper price forecast for the second and third quarters. The macro factors are in an important observation window, and the domestic inventory is decreasing, which supports the price [49][51]. - It is recommended to conduct band trading for copper prices, and gradually take profits on the Shanghai copper positive spread strategy [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the demand is weaker [53][54]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and pay attention to the spot and import changes after the festival [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The zinc price was volatile, and the demand is expected to weaken in the future [56][58]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies on the mid - line and maintain the mid - line positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons. The core trading logic is to test the cost support of the resource end, and short - term trading rhythm should be noted [59]. - It is not recommended to chase short positions or bottom - fish based on valuation. Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the gasoline inventory increased slightly. The short - term rebound driving force of oil prices is weak, and the downward risk is high [61][62]. - Oil prices still have a downward risk in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the price was stable with slight increases. The urea export may be relaxed in the future, but the probability of significant relaxation in the short - to - medium term is very low [63][64][65]. - Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the urea 9/1 positive spread [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand is mild [66][68]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward movement [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable with slight increases in some areas. The short - term pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile [69]. - The pulp market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [69]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell. The market expects tariffs to have a negative impact on demand in the next month [70][72]. - PVC is expected to be weak [72]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories increased, and the supply pressure increased due to the high operating rate. The processing fee is expected to be under pressure [73][74][75]. - The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was volatile, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream demand was average [76]. - In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies, and in the short term, pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [76]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable. The glass futures price was slightly volatile, and the spot price was stable. The market is expected to be weak in the absence of positive policies [77]. - The glass futures price is expected to be in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [77]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk and CMA CGM imposed PSS on some routes from China. The US line is over - booked, and the freight rate has increased, which may boost the shipping companies' sentiment. The market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [78]. - In the absence of obvious driving factors, it is recommended to treat the market with a volatile mindset and wait and see [79].