金信期货日刊-20250508

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and caustic soda [3][7][11][15][18][23] Group 2: Reasons for the Sharp Decline of Shanghai Aluminum Futures - From the demand side, downstream demand is significantly weak. The procurement willingness of downstream processing enterprises remains low, and the demand growth of industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing for aluminum is slow. The consumption side shows no obvious signs of recovery. In Guangdong, although the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the demand side is dragged down by the decline in export orders, weakening the support for high prices [3] - In terms of supply, although the futures warehouse receipts continue to decline (recently about 149,000 tons), domestic production capacity is gradually being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, offsetting the benefits of inventory reduction [3] - Macroeconomically, international macro disturbances intensify. Weak domestic exports (from January to February, the export of wrought aluminum decreased by 11% year - on - year) suppress import demand, and the widening of the internal - external price difference intensifies the domestic selling pressure. The overall market sentiment is weak, and investors lack confidence in the aluminum price trend, which also promotes the price decline [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - There are gaps in the market, and there are continuous policy benefits. In the short term, it is expected to continue the pattern of fluctuating upward [7] Gold Futures - In the short term, the risk - aversion sentiment recedes, and there are many profit - taking positions due to the large cumulative increase in the early stage, so it faces a technical correction. In the long - term, due to the damage to the US dollar credit, the upward logic remains unchanged. The external gold has risen sharply and is adjusting near the previous high, while Shanghai Gold is relatively weaker but remains in a strong oscillation pattern [11][12] Iron Ore Futures - In May, the reduction in downstream exports and the recovery of shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is about to turn to the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation of iron ore. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [15] Glass Futures - The continuous release of demand still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it opened high and closed low today, and the short - term thinking of fluctuating downward remains unchanged. Currently, the daily melting is at a low level. Although the spot production and sales have improved, the factory inventory is still at a high level, and the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [18][19] Caustic Soda Futures - The market price is running at a low level, and there are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, especially the continuous production reduction in the alumina industry. However, manufacturers are highly motivated to ship. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [23]