Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas demand remains strong, and China's exports are at a high level. In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. - Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year-on-year. In Jan - Mar 2025, China's domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with consumption continuing to recover; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7% [3][22][87]. - Supply has increased month-on-month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Currently, hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [4][45][87]. - The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped from 50.5 in March to 49, breaking below the boom - bust line and hitting the largest decline since December 2023. The global manufacturing industry is also under pressure, with the JPMorgan Global PMI falling to 49.8%, entering the contraction range for the first time this year [4][75][88]. - There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. Relevant departments have stated that they will continue to implement crude steel production control and promote the reduction and restructuring of the steel industry, increasing market attention to industrial policies [8][78][88]. - The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may further intensify the supply - demand situation and cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [2][8][89]. Summaries by Directory Global Steel Industry Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level - In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%, but the year - on - year growth in March turned positive; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year - In Jan - Mar 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with the daily output growth rates in the past three months being - 8.1%, + 1.7%, and + 7.1% respectively, and March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with the daily consumption growth rates in the past three months being - 15.40%, + 11.0%, and + 8.40% respectively, indicating continuous consumption recovery; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7%, with the growth rate of iron ore consumption turning positive in March [22][23][87]. The impact of hurricanes and price drops has led to a significant year - on - year decline in imports - In Jan - Mar 2025, China imported 285 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 24.79 million tons compared to the same period last year, a cumulative y-o-y decrease of 8.0%. Affected by hurricanes, imports from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India showed different trends, with overall imports in March showing a significant year - on - year decline, and the supply side contracting under the influence of hurricanes and price drops [29][30][39]. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation Shipments are continuously recovering, with a more obvious recovery in Brazil - As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased by 434 kt year - on - year, an increase of 504 kt from the low point; shipments from Brazil increased by 367 kt year - on - year, an increase of 609 kt from the low point; non - mainstream shipments decreased by 658 kt year - on - year, showing a downward trend. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in iron ore shipments from the four major mines was 118 kt, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of the four major mines in the future [46][47][48]. Shipments are continuously recovering, and future arrivals will remain at a high level - As of May 4, the cumulative y-o-y decline in arrivals at 45 ports was 2,223 kt. Based on current shipment data, iron ore arrivals will remain at a high level in the future [49][50][57]. Domestic iron ore demand is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand situation will become looser - Domestic demand has been performing well this year, and exports have also shown strong growth. The sum of domestic demand and exports has shown an obvious recovery trend, but the growth rate has slowed down. The current hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If the hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [58][59][87]. Iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus, and uncertainties have increased significantly Domestic demand is stable, and iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus - Assuming a 0.1% y-o-y increase in domestic steel consumption and considering the impact of new production capacity on iron ore supply, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser in the future, and port inventories will remain at a relatively high level [65][66][70]. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty - Since the Trump administration restarted the trade war against China in 2025, the US has imposed multiple rounds of tariff increases on Chinese goods, which has had a significant impact on the global economy. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped significantly, and the global manufacturing industry is also under pressure. The US itself is also facing negative impacts, such as inventory shortages in retailers and a decline in freight volume in the logistics industry [74][75][88]. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation - Relevant departments have stated that they will implement policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, including continuous crude steel production control, which has increased market attention to industrial policies. If the policy is implemented, domestic iron ore demand will decline, although overseas iron ore demand may increase to some extent, but overall, it will have a negative impact on iron ore premium capabilities [78][79][88]. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline - With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [8][81][89]. Conclusion - Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of short - selling iron ore at high prices during the production capacity expansion cycle [86][87][90]
铁矿石专题：产能进入扩张周期，价格中枢有望下移
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-08 01:03