5月美联储议息会议传递的信号：联储且行且看，“滞胀”风险增加

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation and employment risks has increased, indicating a rising risk of "stagflation" with both unemployment and inflation on the rise[1] - The Fed's current policy stance remains neutral, with expectations of maintaining strong policy discipline throughout the year, focusing on inflation due to economic downward pressure[2] - The Fed is expected to gradually lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter in the second half of the year, although uncertainty exists regarding the June meeting and tariff clarifications[4] Group 2: Quantitative Policy and Market Stability - The Fed's balance sheet reduction is currently set at $5 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS, with potential adjustments depending on market conditions[2] - Financial stability is anticipated to be a significant constraint on the Fed's quantitative policy in the second half of the year, especially if external factors lead to significant market volatility[4] - If the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, the Fed may consider emergency bond purchases to stabilize the market[5] Group 3: Currency and Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of Asian currencies is attributed to Asian institutions withdrawing from the U.S. Treasury market or increasing hedging ratios, leading to upward pressure on local currencies[5] - The cost of hedging foreign exchange has risen significantly, with the 3-month yen to dollar swap cost increasing from 0.3% at the end of 2021 to 4.1% by April 2025[6] - The dollar index is expected to remain volatile around 100, with limited short-term downward potential due to weak U.S. fundamentals and ongoing geopolitical tensions[7]