宏源期货品种策略日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On May 7th, the price of ethylene glycol rose slightly after reaching a high point. Stimulated by the macro - favorable financial policy support, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted in the afternoon and the market maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. The basis was firm, and the price was around $498 per ton. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly. The polyester chips' production and sales were 60.91% and 125.14% respectively. Although the price increase boosted the atmosphere, the downstream overall inventory was relatively high. At present, the supply - demand and cost of ethylene glycol are expected to remain at a low level, and attention should be paid to the substantial follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the final situation [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 7, 2025, was $562 per ton, up 1.31% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on May 7, 2025, was $791 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of cycloalkane oxide in East China on May 8, 2025, was 6,500 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on May 7, 2025, was 2,402.50 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Tax - included brown coal pit - mouth price (Q5000, Inner Mongolia) on May 7, 2025, was 300 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - DCE EG main contract closing price on May 7, 2025, was 4,199 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,209 yuan per ton, up 1.79% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on May 7, 2025, was 4,250 yuan per ton, up 1.02% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,267 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value [1] - Market intermediate price of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on May 7, 2025, was 4,270 yuan per ton, up 2.15% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (domestic MEG) on May 7, 2025, was 4,260 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on May 7, 2025, was 58 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on May 7, 2025, was 61 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan from the previous value [1] - Comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate on May 7, 2025, was 58.80%, with no change from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on May 7, 2025, was 63.29%, with no change from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on May 7, 2025, was 51.98%, with no change from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on May 7, 2025, was 89.96%, with no change from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on May 7, 2025, was 80.85%, with no change from the previous value [1] - External market: Naphtha - based ethylene glycol on May 6, 2025, was - $112.35 per ton, up 5.84% from the previous value [1] - External market: Ethylene - based ethylene glycol on May 6, 2025, was - $132.15 per ton, up $132.15 from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on May 7, 2025, was - 1,974.82 yuan per ton, down 88.50 yuan from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on May 7, 2025, was 517.26 yuan per ton, up 121.68 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on May 7, 2025, was 8,450 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on May 7, 2025, was 6,750 yuan per ton, up 0.37% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 7, 2025, was 6,380 yuan per ton, up 0.95% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on May 7, 2025, was 5,780 yuan per ton, up 1.58% from the previous value [1] Important Information - A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - made ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to operate at a load of over 50% [2] Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, EG2509 closed at 4,199 yuan per ton, up 1.55%. The policy boost at the trading end drove the market sentiment to heat up. The supply - demand and cost of ethylene glycol are expected to remain at a low level, and attention should be paid to the substantial follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the final situation [2]