能源化工日报-20250508

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market showed a briefly macro - positive trend due to news like China - US talks, but concerns about the economy persisted, and the Fed's hawkish stance at night also influenced the market. Overall, the market situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors including domestic policies, international trade, and economic growth expectations [2][4]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 7, PVC prices rose and then fell. In the long - term, PVC faces a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and export restrictions, and high supply pressure from new projects and high - profit烧碱 production. Currently, it is mainly influenced by the macro - environment, with low valuation and weak trading. Key factors to watch are tariff negotiations, domestic stimulus policies, exports, and maintenance efforts [2]. 烧碱 - On May 7, the main SH09 contract of caustic soda closed at 2513 yuan/ton (+15). The market supply is abundant, demand has not improved, and prices are trending lower. The overall situation is that supply remains sufficient, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to monitor are Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production start - up, exports, and maintenance scale from June to August [3]. 橡胶 - On May 7, rubber prices rose and then fell. NR in Thailand is expected to start tapping soon and is showing weakness, while RU has some support from stockpiling. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term. Factors to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][6]. 尿素 - The main urea contract rose 0.96% to close at 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is at a historically high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. Demand includes agricultural, industrial, and export - substitution aspects. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1750 - 1950 yuan/ton range. Key factors to follow are crop sowing progress, export news, and macro - policy changes [7]. 甲醇 - The main methanol contract rose 0.09% to close at 2239 yuan/ton. Supply from inland areas is decreasing due to lower device operating rates, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Inventory shows a differentiation between inland and port areas. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the operating range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [8]. 塑料 - On May 7, the main plastic contract rose 0.51% to 7046 yuan/ton. In April, due to tariff policies, plastic prices dropped significantly. Supply pressure is increasing with new capacity coming online in the second quarter. Demand is entering the off - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Key factors to monitor are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [9][10].