国债期货：双降落地长债调整，曲线结构走陡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On May 7, Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.62%, 0.19%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. The Treasury bond futures index was 0.85, with both the volume - price and fundamental factors being bullish. The strategy's cumulative returns in different time - frames showed mixed performance [1]. - The equity market opened higher and then fluctuated lower, with the three major indices rising slightly. Over 3200 stocks in the whole market rose [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Treasury Bond Futures Performance: - 30 - year main contract (TL2506) closed at 120.140, down 0.62%; 10 - year main contract (T2506) at 108.850, down 0.19%; 5 - year main contract (TF2506) at 105.995, down 0.08%; 2 - year main contract (TS2506) at 102.308, down 0.01% [1][3]. - The strategy's cumulative returns in the past 20 days, 60 days, 120 days, and 240 days were 0.13%, - 0.83%, 0.24%, and 1.38% respectively [1]. - Equity Market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.51%. Over 3200 stocks in the whole market rose [1]. - Funding: Overnight shibor was 1.6570%, down 4.5bp; 7 - day shibor was 1.6610%, down 4.6bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.7250%, down 1.2bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.7190%, down 1.3bp [2]. - CTD and IRR: The 2 - year active CTD was 240024.IB with an IRR of 2.16%; 5 - year was 240014.IB with an IRR of 2.27%; 10 - year was 240025.IB with an IRR of 2.96%; 30 - year was 200012.IB with an IRR of 1.70%. Currently, R007 was about 1.7558% [3]. - Money Market: On May 7, the inter - bank pledged repo market traded 2300 million yuan, an increase of 6.59%. Overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and 1 - month rates all decreased compared to the previous trading day [4]. - Yield Curve: Treasury bond yield curve showed mixed changes (2Y down 1.17BP to 1.44%; 5Y down 0.35BP to 1.52%; 10Y up 1.35BP to 1.64%; 30Y up 2.05BP to 1.85%). Credit bond yield curve also showed mixed changes [4]. - Net Long - Position Changes: In terms of daily changes, private funds decreased by 0.08%, foreign capital decreased by 1.0%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.17%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 0.91%, foreign capital decreased by 1.71%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.17% [5][6]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Starting from May 8, 2025, the 7 - day reverse repo operation rate in the open market was adjusted from 1.50% to 1.40%. The operation rates of 14 - day reverse repos and temporary positive/negative repos were still determined by adding or subtracting points from the 7 - day reverse repo operation rate, with the amplitude remaining unchanged [8]. - On May 7, Panguosheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate. The first - home mortgage rate for over 5 - year terms dropped from 2.85% to 2.6%, and other term rates were adjusted accordingly [8]. - The central bank and the CSRC optimized the issuance management process of science and technology innovation bonds, improved financing efficiency, and supported issuers to issue in installments flexibly. They also simplified the information disclosure rules [8]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral trend [9].