Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures night session generally closed down, with most energy and chemical products, black series, and agricultural products falling, and most basic metals also declining [2][47]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed down, and international oil prices weakened, with concerns about oversupply dominating the oil price trend [2][47][49]. - A - share market is expected to continue the stabilization trend since early April, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the medium - term market [27]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures night session: Energy and chemical products mostly fell (e.g., glass down 2.96%, soda ash down 2.7%), black series all declined (e.g., coking coal down 2.57%), agricultural products mostly dropped (e.g., soybeans down 1.58%), and basic metals all fell (except for a 0.07% rise in Shanghai gold) [2][47]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures down 1.47% to $3372.60 per ounce, COMEX silver futures down 2.31% to $32.61 per ounce [2][47]. - International oil prices: U.S. oil main contract down 1.93% to $57.95 per barrel, Brent crude main contract down 1.91% to $60.96 per barrel [2][49]. - London basic metals: Most declined, except LME lead up 2.16% [3][49]. - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural products: All futures main contracts fell [3][49]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The central bank cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, provided about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity, and made multiple interest - rate cuts [6]. - Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the U.S. side [7]. - The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase [7][35]. - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of April were $32816.62 billion, a $409.97 billion month - on - month increase [9]. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and traders still expected three interest rate cuts this year [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory rose 0.1% week - on - week, while middle distillates inventory dropped 20% [11]. - China's methanol port inventory increased slightly, with de - stocking in East China and inventory accumulation in South China [11]. - Some quotes of photovoltaic glass in the South China market were lowered, and the market may see a general decline [11]. - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased by 2032000 barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 580000 barrels [13][50]. - The national main port's imported coniferous log inventory slightly decreased [13]. Metal Futures - Alphamin Resources lowered its tin mine production guidance from 20000 tons to 17500 tons [15]. Black - Series Futures - The impact of production - restriction news on the Northeast region is limited [17]. - China's gold reserves increased by 70000 ounces at the end of April, the sixth consecutive month of increase [19][50]. - Guinea's government started the process to revoke EGA's mining license [19]. - The coal price at the Bohai Rim ports has dropped by 111 yuan/ton, and experts predict it may fall to 600 yuan/ton [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Analysts predict the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean yield to be 4.338 billion bushels [22]. - China's oil - mill soybean - crushing volume is expected to rise, and domestic soybean meal and soybean oil inventories will gradually increase [22]. - India's sugar production decreased by 1.833 million tons in the 2024/2025 season as of April 30 [22]. - The predicted trading price of Malaysian palm oil futures from June to November is 3500 ringgit per ton [23]. - Brazil's May soybean export is expected to be 12.6 million tons [24]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares opened higher but then fell back, with a turnover of 1.5 trillion yuan, and the military industry was strong [27]. - Hong Kong stocks opened high and closed low, with net southbound capital outflows [27]. - The current foreign - held A - share market value is about 3 trillion yuan, and the CSRC will support M&A [27]. - A - share new - account openings in April decreased but remained stable [28]. - CITIC Securities may prepare for the return of Chinese concept stocks [28]. - Shanghai Auntie's dark - market price rose over 62% [28]. - Pop Mart's director sold all shares, cashing out HK$2.267 billion [30]. - Geely will privatize ZEEKR [30]. - BeiGene's Q1 revenue increased by 50.2% [30]. - CATL's potential Hong Kong IPO price may be less than 10% lower than A - shares [30]. - Changan Automobile refuted the merger rumor [31]. Industry - Real - estate loans increased in Q1, and many places implemented the central bank's mortgage - interest - rate cut [32][33]. - Zhuhai introduced new real - estate policies [35]. - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing [35]. - Goldman Sachs predicts the growth of the Chinese Robotaxi market [35]. - Tesla China's April wholesale sales decreased by 6% year - on - year [35]. - The CBRC approved the establishment of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. [36]. Overseas - The U.S. and the EU are negotiating, and the EU may take counter - measures [37]. - U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion in March [37]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in May [39]. - U.S. electronic product prices may rise due to tariffs [40]. - Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points [41]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with Disney and NVIDIA leading the gains, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell [42]. - European stocks fell [43]. - Asia - Pacific stocks showed mixed performance [43]. - Disney's Q2 revenue increased by 7%, and it raised its annual profit forecast [43]. - Novo Nordisk's Q1 revenue and profit increased, but it lowered its annual profit - growth forecast [45]. - BMW's Q1 sales were lower than expected, and it warned of U.S. tariff impacts [45]. - Uber's Q1 revenue increased by 14% but was lower than expected, while EPS exceeded expectations [45]. - ARM's Q4 adjusted EPS, revenue, and operating profit all exceeded expectations [46]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight market trends, domestic and international commodity futures generally showed a downward trend, with some exceptions in gold and lead [47][49]. - China's gold reserves increased, and U.S. crude - oil - related data changed [50]. - The price of Japanese rice continued to rise [50]. Bonds - The "technology board" of the bond market was launched, with nearly 100 institutions planning to issue over 300 billion yuan of innovation - related bonds [51]. - Domestic bond futures fell, and bond - yield trends were divided [53]. - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations and adjusted the interest rate [53]. - There may be a $2 - trillion demand for U.S. Treasuries from digital assets [53]. - Japanese and U.S. and European bond yields showed different trends [54]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 1.27% month - on - month in April [56]. - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar declined, and the dollar index rose [57]. - Indonesia's central bank will maintain its presence in the foreign - exchange market [57].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250508
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-05-08 01:22