宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has driven the rebound of oil prices. However, if the tariff issue is not effectively resolved, it will still suppress the market in the long - term. The supply of PX has tightened, and the demand has been further consolidated. The fundamentals of supply and demand may improve, and market confidence has increased. [2] - With the rise in oil prices and many PTA device overhauls, PTA has accelerated inventory reduction this week. In the short term, PTA spot prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost. The polyester factory starts at the beginning of the month, and there may be pressure on the shipment of polyester filament later. The downstream polyester maintains high - level operation in May, which alleviates concerns about the decline in market demand. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has increased. The supply - side quotes have mostly followed the upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Some overhauled devices are expected to restart, and the downstream will mainly consume inventory in the short term. [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner, waiting for the results of the China - US talks. [2] Summary by Related Content Price Information - Upstream: On May 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $58.07 per barrel, down 1.73% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $61.12 per barrel, down 1.66%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $562 per ton, up 1.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $657.5 per ton, up 2.65%. [1] - PTA: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4466 yuan per ton, up 2.38%; the settlement price was 4458 yuan per ton, up 2.29%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4482 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4565 yuan per ton, up 1.90%. [1] - PX: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6288 yuan per ton, up 2.58%; the settlement price was 6270 yuan per ton, up 2.52%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 5918 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $206 per ton, up 7.15%; the PX - MX spread was $110.5 per ton, up 3.76%. [1] - PR: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5778 yuan per ton, up 1.55%; the settlement price was 5772 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%; in the South China market, it was 5830 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. [1] - Downstream: On May 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6380 yuan per ton, up 0.95%; the price index of polyester chip was 5660 yuan per ton, up 1.62%; the price index of bottle - grade chip was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.18% on May 7, 2025. The PTA factory load rate was 71.03%, down 2.90% from the previous value. The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] Production and Sales - On May 7, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 61%, an increase of 31 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 125%, an increase of 52 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, an increase of 32 percentage points. [1] Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul the 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in Huizhou on April 28 and the 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May. [2] Transaction Strategy - Driven by crude oil, the TA2509 contract closed at 4466 yuan per ton (up 2.48%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.3 million lots. Due to the PX overhaul season, the supply decreased, and the 2509 contract closed at 6288 yuan per ton (up 2.81%), with an intraday trading volume of 27,050 lots. PR followed the cost, and the 2506 contract closed at 5778 yuan per ton (up 1.69%), with an intraday trading volume of 26,300 lots. [2]