国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250508

Report Overview - Date: May 8, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report on Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillating to find the bottom, relatively strong among varieties [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal may oscillate weakly [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, while the futures market declines [2] - Corn: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Sugar: Oscillating downward [2] - Cotton: Still lacking upward drivers [2] - Eggs: Oscillating and adjusting [2] - Hogs: Second - fattening continues to enter the market [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to oil mill purchases [2] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the main palm oil contract was 7,914 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.75%, and 7,862 yuan/ton at night, down 0.66%. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - News: Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 1,900 million tons, up less than 1% from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2024/25 production is expected to be 4,880 million tons, flat from the previous forecast. Thailand's 2024/25 production is expected to remain at 359 million tons, flat from the previous forecast [6][8][9]. - Soybean oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the main soybean oil contract was 7,786 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.34%, and 7,758 yuan/ton at night, down 0.36%. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - Canola oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the main canola oil contract was 9,335 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.29%, and 9,295 yuan/ton at night, down 0.43%. The spot price in Guangxi was 9,340 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Soybean meal - Fundamentals: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2,920 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.03%, and 2,917 yuan/ton at night, unchanged. The trend strength is - 1 [16]. - News: On May 7, CBOT soybeans closed mixed due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations and smooth spring sowing in the US. The USDA will release a supply - demand report next week, providing the first global supply - demand forecast for the 2025/26 season [18]. - Soybeans - Fundamentals: The closing price of DCE soybean 2507 was 4,236 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.46%, and 4,161 yuan/ton at night, down 1.58%. The trend strength is - 1 [16]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2507 was 2,369 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.25%, and 2,372 yuan/ton at night, up 0.13%. The closing price of C2509 was 2,379 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.04%, and 2,386 yuan/ton at night, up 0.29%. The trend strength is 1 [20]. - News: The northern corn collection price is 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou has increased by 10 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamentals: The original sugar price was 17.14 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,160 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5,868 yuan/ton. The trend strength is - 1 [24]. - News: Brazil's crushing progress is slightly faster year - on - year. The USDA expects Brazil's production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season. As of the end of April, India's 24/25 sugar production was 2,569 million tons [24]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2509 was 12,805 yuan/ton at night, down 0.74%. The spot price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,998 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The trend strength is 0 [28]. - News: Cotton spot trading is average, and the mainstream basis is stable. The cotton yarn market has poor trading, and the inventory of spinning mills is rising. ICE cotton rose and then fell [28]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2507 was 3,028 yuan, down 0.33%, and the closing price of egg 2509 was 3,769 yuan, down 0.03%. The trend strength is 0 [32]. 3.7 Hogs - Fundamentals: The spot price in Henan was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the hog 2509 contract was 13,985 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [36]. - Logic: In April, the second - fattening procurement was more than half - completed. In May, the pen pressure increased slightly. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm. Focus on the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread [38]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamentals: The closing price of PK510 was 8,088 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trend strength is 0 [39]. - Market: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply is limited due to farmers' busy farming, the trading is limited, and most prices are stable [40].