锌矿进口或受影响，短期维持偏空评级

Report 1: Zinc Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core View - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Due to the trade war, Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates. After China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Teck's lead - zinc concentrates from the Red Dog mine in Alaska became a "victim" of the Sino - US trade conflict. The company's business team is evaluating various solutions [1] Supply - Mining enterprise profits are affected by tariff policies, with single - ton profits shrinking from over 6,000 to around 4,000. However, TC prices have not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. The supply side is generally becoming looser, and the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely low [2] Demand - The peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end. Galvanizing shows low capacity utilization and production, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline in the short term. In the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets, demand is weak [3] Conclusion - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [4] Report 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound; Stainless steel - Hold [5] 2. Core View - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In the first week of May 2025, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore (CIF) increased by $1.1 per metric ton, while the price of 1.2% grade nickel ore (CIF) remained stable. Some processed product prices declined [5] Supply - Indonesia has increased mining royalties, and the price at the mine end is firm. The probability of the mine end becoming looser is high. The profit of ferronickel produced from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while the profit from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel remains at a high level, and the cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [5] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point for external - purchasing manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [6] Conclusion - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] Operation Suggestion - Short [7]