宁证期货今日早评-20250508

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, which has an impact on various commodities [2][3]. - The prices of different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, including gold, crude oil, pork, palm oil, etc. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The results of the interest - rate meeting were in line with market expectations, but the short - term rebound of the US dollar index may put pressure on gold. It is advisable to have a slightly bearish view on gold's medium - term high - level shock [2]. Crude Oil - As of May 2, US crude oil inventories decreased, but the Fed's policy statement was hawkish. Trump's stance on tariffs also added uncertainty. In the short term, inventory pressure is not large, but in the medium and long term, with OPEC+ increasing production, supply is expected to be in surplus. After the rebound, it will be in a phased shock [3]. Pork - On May 7, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.3% compared with the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with normal slaughter by farmers and some price - holding sentiment. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly. The production in April also increased compared with the previous month. The production is growing continuously, lacking positive news. It follows the trend of competing oils. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly recovering, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the production data reports of major producing countries [6]. Soybean - Brazil's expected soybean exports in May are 12.6 million tons, and the expected soybean meal exports are 1.87 million tons, both lower than the same period last year. The domestic soybean market is relatively calm. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Silver - The Fed's interest - rate meeting was in line with market expectations, but Powell's speech increased the market's expectations of rising unemployment and inflation in the US, and the expected interest - rate cut in July may be postponed. The tariff negotiations between the US and the EU are ongoing, which suppresses risk appetite. Fundamentally, it is bearish for silver. It is advisable to have a medium - term wide - range shock view and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. Treasury Bonds - On May 8, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined slightly. The bond cash market yields declined slightly, and the opening of treasury bonds may rise. A package of financial policies were issued to stabilize the market, and the short - term bullish sentiment in the A - share market has basically been fulfilled, which is bullish for the bond market. There may be a certain degree of differentiation between short - term and long - term treasury bonds, and the bond market's own logic is not clear. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and it is advisable to have a medium - term shock view [8]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, and the customs clearance at Ganqimao remains low with high - level inventory decreasing. The second - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the trading atmosphere is average. There is still rigid demand support, but the demand expectation is not good, and there is still surplus pressure in the medium and long term. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - From April 28 to May 4, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports showed different trends. The rigid demand for iron ore is strong, but there are concerns about the decline in terminal demand and the uncertainty of production - restriction policies. The upward momentum of ore prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a shock trend in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 2509 contract [10]. Rebar - On May 7, the domestic steel market rose slightly. The central bank's interest - rate cut and reserve - requirement ratio cut will provide long - term liquidity to the market, but the downstream demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and speculative demand is not active. In the short term, macro - favorable policies will push steel prices to be strong, but considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it may continue to have a wide - range shock trend [10]. Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are rising, and the raw material supply in Hainan has increased. The export volume of Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter decreased year - on - year. The domestic main producing areas will enter the full - scale tapping period, and tire demand is weak. However, the import volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory in Qingdao may continue to decline. It should be treated with a slightly bullish view on the shock and pay attention to the rhythm [11]. PTA - PX and PTA are still in the centralized maintenance period, but the downstream weaving and texturing start - up rates have decreased. After May, the polyester start - up rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of PTA is expected to weaken. It is advisable to wait and see [12][13]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang increased by 2 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, and some devices are expected to resume production. The downstream demand decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term weak shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the country is stable, the start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The start - up rate of float glass is stable, and the market transaction is average. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [14]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream alumina start - up rate decreased, and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [15].