美联储5月如期继续暂停降息，并排除“先发制人”可能性，降息还需“边走边看”

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for the third consecutive meeting, indicating a dovish stance for the year[1] - The statement emphasizes an increase in economic uncertainty, with the phrase "further increase" added to the assessment of economic outlook[1] - Risks of higher unemployment and inflation have been acknowledged, with the statement reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Predictions - Powell highlighted that the economy remains robust despite some negative signals, and there is no immediate pressure for rate cuts[2] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. is estimated at 40% due to current tariff policies, with potential impacts on the job market expected to show in May data[3] - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut potentially delayed until July[3][4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain patience, suggesting that one month of weak employment data may not prompt immediate action[4] - If tariffs lead to significant economic impacts, the Fed may need to adjust its policies more aggressively, potentially leading to higher-than-expected rate cuts[4] - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially triggering a recession and aggressive tariff policies leading to financial instability[4]