美联储静以待变

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25-4.5% during the May 8 meeting, signaling a wait-and-see approach due to increased economic uncertainty[1] - Market expectations indicate a 23.3% probability of a rate cut in June and a 70.8% probability in July, with an anticipated total cut of 78.7 basis points (bp) this year[2] - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts is influenced by the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The risk of economic downturn in the U.S. is perceived to be greater than inflation risks, with soft data indicators showing a decline in consumer-related metrics[3] - The Bloomberg Surprise Index indicates a continuous drop in economic indicators, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending due to tariff uncertainties[3] - The Fed may require clear evidence of worsening unemployment and consumption data before considering rate cuts[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index experienced a rare nine-day rally from April 22 to May 2, recovering over 10% of losses related to tariff negotiations, indicating that the market has priced in trade easing[4] - Despite the positive market reaction, uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and potential economic impacts remain significant, leading to potential volatility in U.S. equities[4] Group 4: Bond Market Risks - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields are influenced by factors beyond domestic fundamentals, including potential currency impacts from ongoing tariff negotiations[5] - The Fed's long-term rate projection remains at 3%, with 100-150 bp term premium, suggesting a 10-year Treasury yield range of 4.0-4.5%[5] - The depreciation of the dollar under the current administration may gradually diminish the safe-haven appeal of U.S. Treasuries compared to other assets like European bonds and gold[5]