地缘政治引发区域不确定性增强，看好我国军贸长期发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to higher military expenditures across various regions, which is expected to open up opportunities in the global military trade market [1][3] - Global military spending reached $2.44 trillion in 2023, marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase, the largest since 2009, with Africa, Europe, and the Middle East showing significant growth rates [1][10] - China ranks fourth in global arms exports, with a market share of 5.8%, and is expected to increase its share in the future due to shifts in the global military trade landscape [2][11] Summary by Sections Military Expenditure Trends - The report notes that military spending in Africa reached $51.6 billion, a 22% increase; Europe at $588 billion, a 16% increase; and the Middle East at approximately $200 billion, a 9% increase in 2023 [1][10] - NATO members collectively increased military spending to over $1.5 trillion in 2024, accounting for about 55% of global military expenditures, reflecting both external pressures and a desire for defense autonomy in Europe [1] Global Arms Trade Dynamics - The top five arms-exporting countries (USA, France, Russia, China, and Germany) account for 75.4% of the global market, with the report suggesting that while the USA and France may maintain their positions, Russia's exports could decline due to geopolitical factors [2][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several areas for investment: 1. Unmanned combat systems, with recommended companies including Aerospace Rainbow, Zhong UAV, and Aerospace Electronics [3][8] 2. Radar and electronic warfare weapons, with suggested companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace Nanhu [3][8] 3. Main manufacturers likely to push for equipment exports, including Hongdu Aviation and AVIC Chengfei [3][8] 4. Low-cost, high-consumption ammunition supply chain companies such as Guangdong Hongda and Beifang Navigation [3][8]