合成橡胶：估值支撑，但驱动有限，震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view on the industry trend [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber currently have a neutral driving force, but due to the lack of significant inventory accumulation of butadiene rubber, the spot price has support at the valuation level after a sharp decline [1][3] - Although the fundamentals of butadiene rubber have no driving force, due to its relatively low valuation, the downward support has increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (06 contract) was 11,375 yuan/ton, with a volume of 121,503 lots, an open interest of 25,104 lots, and a turnover of 688.392 million yuan. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 60 yuan/ton, the volume increased by 7,538 lots, the open interest decreased by 639 lots, and the turnover increased by 48.626 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene (deliverable product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged; the mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 250 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 74.2678%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points compared with the previous day; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,873 yuan/ton, and the profit was -173 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - Butadiene Situation: The price of Asian butadiene remained stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved. The operating rate of the butadiene industry was still at a high level year - on - year, but decreased month - on - month due to the centralized maintenance of some ethylene plants. Short - term import arrivals were limited. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber increased, and the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS was maintained. The inventory of butadiene production enterprises decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [1][3] - Butadiene Rubber Situation: With the decline of the cost side and the increase of processing profit, the operating rate of the supply side is expected to increase. The apparent demand for butadiene rubber has significantly strengthened, and the substitution demand still supports the total demand. The current fundamentals are in a neutral pattern, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year [1][3]