铅锌日评：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强，基本面偏弱，锌价或偏弱整理-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For lead, raw material supply is tight and demand is in the off - season. Cost support and weak demand compete, so short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Long - term focus on macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, short - term macro sentiment is uncertain, leading to wide - range fluctuations in zinc prices. In the long - run, TC has room to rise and the center of zinc prices may decline, with continuous attention on macro sentiment disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,550 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [1] - Futures main contract closing price was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 17.64 dollars/ton, down 2.43 dollars/ton [1] - Futures active contract trading volume was 44,962 lots, up 24.39% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 36,929 lots, down 3.97% [1] - LME lead inventory was 256,700 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 39,981 tons, down 0.06% [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,923 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.68, unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with a significant increase in electrolytic lead production in March (about 23 percentage points month - on - month). Some Henan smelters entered maintenance in April, and primary lead production may decline month - on - month [1] - For secondary lead, waste lead - acid battery prices have risen continuously, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some smelters have reduced or halted production due to cost - price inversion, and the operating rate has dropped significantly [1] - Demand is in the off - season, with weak downstream purchasing and limited support for lead prices [1] 3.2 Zinc Market 3.2.1 Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [1] - Futures main contract closing price was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was 490 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1] - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 39.30 dollars/ton, down 2.21 dollars/ton [1] - Futures active contract trading volume was 155,956 lots, up 35.55% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 116,701 lots, up 4.46% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 171,400 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 2,053 tons, down 8.84% [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,632.50 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.44, down 0.65% [1] 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is improving, and the production restrictions on smelters are weakening. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing [1] - Demand: After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. Under the current high - premium environment, downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Export orders to the US face difficulties, and the "rush to export" is not obvious [1]