格林大华期货早盘提示-20250508

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute on May 8, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Li Fanglei with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311, contact number 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Market Review - SR509 contract closed at 5868 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.37%, and 5825 yuan/ton at night. SR601 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21%, and 5695 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar July contract closed at 17.14 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 1.55%. London white sugar August contract closed at 485.3 dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.52% [1] Important Information - As of May 5, 2025, Russia sowed 1.00985 million hectares of sugar beets [1] - Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar in the first half of April, a 1.25% increase from last year. The cane crushing volume was 16.59 million tons, a 3% year - on - year increase [1] - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than last year. The crushed cane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) [1] - In Hainan, as of the end of April in the 2024/24 sugar season, the sugar sales rate was 27.59% with an inventory of 39,900 tons [1] - Yesterday, the spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 6079 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. Guangxi Sugar Group quoted 6130 - 6260 yuan/ton with a few down 10 yuan/ton. Yunnan Sugar Group quoted 5940 - 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories was 6360 - 6920 yuan/ton, adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton with mixed changes [1] - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 30,301, a daily increase of 1672 [1] - The previous trading day, the SR9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Market Logic - For the external market, ICE raw sugar futures fell again and basically gave back recent gains. Overseas sugar supply is expected to be good and there is insufficient capital buying intention, so the external market may test the 17 - cent/pound support and trade in a low - level oscillation [1] - For the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly yesterday and opened and moved lower at night affected by the external market. There is limited domestic trading information, and the import ban on syrup and premixed powder makes the domestic and foreign sugar prices more closely linked. The key is whether the downward space of raw sugar can be opened, and the strengthening basis will also support the sugar price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the previous long positions for now. If it breaks below 5800 yuan/ton, exit and wait for the market sentiment to subside, then look for support at 5750 yuan/ton. Hold the SR9 - 1 calendar spread long position [1] Group 3: Jujube Market Market Review - CJ509 contract closed at 9050 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.06% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,505 tons, a 0.15% decrease from the previous period and a 52.96% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, an increase of 3 from the previous day [3] - The previous trading day, the jujube warehouse receipts were 8513, an increase of 15 [3] - The previous trading day, the CJ9 - 1 spread was - 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [3] Market Logic - Jujubes are in the traditional off - season, and market demand is still weak. There is limited trading information, and whether the supply side can provide upward momentum remains to be seen. In the short term, jujube futures prices lack upward drivers, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of upstream weather [3] Trading Strategy - For the CJ509 contract, consider a small - scale long position after the current negative factors are digested, waiting for the weather - related market to develop. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Group 4: Rubber Market Market Review - As of May 7, RU2509 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%. NR2506 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%. BR2506 contract closed at 11,375 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53% [4] Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price was 53.55 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,800 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated milk was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 200 yuan/ton. Yunnan's rubber block price was 13,100 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,100 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1000 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, a 4.3% increase, and the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, a 0.38% increase [4] - As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a decrease of 5.67 percentage points from the previous period and 12.29 percentage points lower year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a decrease of 6.25 percentage points from the previous period and 11.74 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - Yesterday, the price of whole milk was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1760 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars (- 0.56%), equivalent to 12,673 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.35%) [4] - Yesterday, the basis of whole milk and the RU main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 410 yuan/ton, widening by 45 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the price of Shandong market's Daqing cis - butadiene BR9000 was stable at 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong market's Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 was stable at 12,100 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the domestic butadiene industry's capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a slight decrease of 0.62 percentage points from the previous day [4] - Yesterday, the butadiene delivery price in Shandong's central region was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9000 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly and then fell again yesterday, and continued to decline at night. The previous small positive news did not boost the market continuously, and the domestic macro - environment did not meet expectations, calming market sentiment. The phenological conditions of rubber plantations at home and abroad are good, and tire factory sales are still not optimistic. So the upward space of the market is limited, and the price may oscillate to find a direction [4] - Synthetic rubber: The supply of butadiene is still abundant, but demand - side support is limited and has little impact on BR rubber. The spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The weak fundamentals of BR remain unchanged, and it may continue to oscillate at a low level without new news [4] Trading Strategy - For RU, focus on the support range of 14,400 - 14,550 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton. For NR, focus on the support range of 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Given the limited drivers, high - selling and low - buying short - term operations are the main strategy. For the BR main contract, the lower support range is 10,900 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance range is 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Take a bearish attitude in the short term [4]