4月社融货币预测：招证银行金融数据前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total new RMB loans are expected to be 0.65 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.08 trillion, while the social financing increment is projected to be 1.48 trillion, an increase of 1.55 trillion year-on-year [1][5]. - The expected growth rate of social financing balance is 8.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [1][5]. - The report highlights that the external environment remains uncertain, but internal policies are expected to strengthen, which will benefit market liquidity and potentially improve bank performance in the long term [5][6]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In April 2025, the expected net financing from government bonds is about 0.95 trillion, an increase of 1.04 trillion year-on-year [5][6]. - The anticipated increase in trust, entrusted, and foreign currency loans is 0.01 trillion, compared to a decrease of 0.01 trillion in the same period last year [5]. - The report anticipates a high proportion of bill financing in the overall credit issuance [5]. Monetary Growth - The new M1 growth rate is expected to be 3.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, while M2 growth is projected at 7.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [1][5]. - The report notes that the low base from the previous year due to manual interest adjustments has contributed to the current monetary growth [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector's relative valuation and dividend yield defensive advantages are expected to increase, with high-dividend banks likely to outperform [5]. - It emphasizes a balanced investment strategy across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [5][6].