生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and relatively reasonable current futures prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On May 7, there were 705 registered pig futures warehouse receipts [3] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in far - month contracts are still accumulating with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [3] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,403 lots today, with a position of about 72,200 lots, a maximum price of 14,035 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,940 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,985 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [1] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [1] - Bearish factors: the breeding side has not reduced the weight of pigs, which is bearish for the future market; the subsequent number of slaughterings is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. Bullish factors: the inventory of slaughtering enterprises is not complete, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent number of slaughterings will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season will gradually arrive in the third and fourth quarters; the rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase the cost of pig breeding [1] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term due to sufficient pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, weak demand support, and the breeding side still increasing inventory [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now because of high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term, weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, and relatively reasonable futures prices [2] Market Data - On May 7, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.81 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.05 yuan/kg (0.33%) to 15.06 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan/kg (0.14%) to 14.76 yuan/kg [4] - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased slightly on May 7, with the 01 - contract up 0.22%, the 03 - contract up 0.38%, the 07 - contract up 0.26%, the 09 - contract up 0.18%, and the 11 - contract up 0.07%. The 05 - contract remained unchanged [4] - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 25 yuan/ton (2.38%) to 1,075 yuan/ton on May 7 [4]