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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-8)-20250508
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-05-08 02:29

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]