宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250508

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, as the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. High supply and demand co - exist, the fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, but the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore shows high supply and demand. Steel mills are actively producing during the peak season, and ore demand is good, supporting the ore price. However, the profit situation of steel mills is changing, and there is an expectation of weakening steel demand, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. Overseas ore supply remains high, and domestic ore supply is stable, so the supply pressure of iron ore persists. The fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, while the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].