农产品日报：现货涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [4][7] Core Viewpoints - In the soybean meal market, due to the large - scale arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be relatively abundant in the coming months. The tight supply situation of soybean meal is expected to ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will increase. The support of import costs for soybean meal prices is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to policy changes, domestic soybean arrivals, and the planting and weather conditions of new - season US soybeans [3] - In the corn market, the domestic supply is tight as the grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2920 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2565 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.67%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2024/25 season was 97.7%, higher than 94.3% in the same period last year. The harvest in some states has ended, and the progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. In Argentina, the soybean harvest was only 25%, 9 percentage points slower than last year [2] Market Analysis - With the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be abundant, the tight situation of soybean meal will ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will recover. The decline in soybean premiums will weaken the support of import costs for soybean meal prices. The current tariff policy has limited impact on soybean meal prices, but policy changes still need attention [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.17%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the US corn planting progress was 40%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 41%, but higher than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 39% [5] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply is tight as grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]