Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term range - bound, recommend calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PX against SC and EB [6] - PTA: Calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PTA against SC. Consider shorting on rallies [7] - MEG: Weak unilateral trend, long PTA against MEG. Avoid chasing high in calendar spreads [7] 2. Core Views - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and supply disruptions support the rise in PX prices. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and the rebound of crude oil also boost the valuation of the aromatics - polyester chain [4][6] - PTA is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, continuing to draw down inventories. High processing fees delay some device maintenance, so the unilateral trend is hard to turn strongly upward [7] - The supply of MEG will continue to increase. Coal - based and oil - based production will see more restarts, and imports are high, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price and Change: On May 7, 2025, PX closed at 6288, PTA at 4466, MEG at 4199, PF at 6200, and SC at 3399, with daily changes of 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.7%, 1.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Calendar Spread: PX (9 - 1) was 36 on May 7, with a daily change of 40; PTA(6 - 9) was 74, with a daily change of - 12; MEG (9 - 1) was - 22, with a daily change of - 5; PF(7 - 8) was 16, with a daily change of - 14; PX - EB09 was - 506, with a daily change of 54 [2] - Inter - commodity Spread: PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 379 on May 7, with a daily change of 1; PTA09 - MEG09 was 267, with a daily change of 35; PTA09 - PF09 was - 1644, with a daily change of - 8; PF07盘面加工费 was 896, with a daily change of 2; PTA09 - LU09 was 1147, with a daily change of 53 [2] - Basis and Other Spreads: PX basis was 83 on May 7, with a daily change of 5; PTA basis was 110, with a daily change of - 10; MEG basis was 50, with a daily change of - 3; PF basis was 20, with a daily change of 28; PX - naphtha spread was 206, with a daily change of 12 [2] - Warehouse Receipts: PTA warehouse receipts were 98978 on May 7, with a daily change of - 3644; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 10189, with a daily change of 5239; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 2587, with a daily change of - 6; PX warehouse receipts were 1311; SC warehouse receipts were 4644000 [2] 3.2 Market Overview - PX: On May 7, Asian PX prices rose significantly. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and a supply disruption at Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton/year PX production line in Tokuyama supported the price. The Platts - assessed average daily price of Asian PX increased by $19.67/ton to $767.67/ton CFR Unv1/China [4] - PTA: On May 7, the spot price of PTA rose to 4565 yuan/ton. A 200,000 - ton IPA device in Taiwan, China, was shut down for maintenance, a 300 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting, and a 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China started to shut down on May 7 [5] - MEG: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance on May 14 for about a week. On May 6, the MEG shipments from a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4640 tons, and those from two major warehouses in Taicang were about 2670 tons [6] - Polyester: On May 7, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 127% in Fujian. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was highly differentiated, with an average of over 60% [6]
对二甲苯:月差正套,加工费扩张,PTA,多PTA空SC,MEG,多PTA空MEG
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-08 02:33