长江期货市场交易指引-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to move in a volatile range, while treasury bonds are expected to rise steadily [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, and coking coal and coke are expected to move in a volatile range [1][7][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is not recommended for short - chasing, nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin is recommended for range trading, gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for range trading [1][11][17]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move in a volatile range, while soda ash is recommended for observation [1][19][25]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be weakly volatile, apples are expected to move in a volatile range, and PTA is expected to be weakly volatile [1][27][28]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to be weakly volatile, eggs are expected to be weakly trending, corn is expected to be strongly volatile, soybean meal is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and oils are expected to be weakly volatile [1][29][35]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the black building materials industry, the supply and demand situation of iron ore and the impact of policies on steel production are considered; in the non - ferrous metals industry, factors like global economic conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, and trade policies are analyzed. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical events, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to move in a volatile range. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may rebound after filling the gap; if the overall situation is stable and positive, it may be strongly volatile [5]. - Treasury Bonds: Although the "double - cut" policy has been implemented, the bond market investors are not fully satisfied. The short - end bonds are stronger, while the long - end bonds have a profit - taking market. The bond market is still in a situation with a relatively high winning rate but limited odds [5][6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is expected to move in a volatile range. The static valuation is low, but the policy and market expectations are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - Iron Ore: The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is also increasing, but there is an expectation of a peak and decline. Considering the high iron - water output and international trade frictions, the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream iron - water production, changes in imported coal prices, and policy expectations. The coke market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of finished - product demand, the balance of coking - steel profits, and policy - related production - restriction disturbances [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand may be restricted by price increases and trade policies. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and cautious trading within a range is recommended [11]. - Aluminum: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, but the current decline is too fast, so short - chasing is not recommended [12]. - Nickel: The supply is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of cost and demand factors [13][14]. - Tin: The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended [15]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, economic data, and trade policies, the prices are expected to be in an adjustment state, and range trading is recommended [17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The demand is weak, and the supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [19]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is sufficient, and the demand increment is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and export [20]. - Rubber: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term, and attention should be paid to policies, tariffs, and weather [21][22]. - Urea: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually released. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [22]. - Methanol: The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [24]. - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand, policies, and tariffs [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is still high, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - term observation is recommended [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: The global supply and demand are loose, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [27]. - Apples: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, but attention should be paid to macro - risks [27]. - PTA: The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the 4200 support level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is recommended after taking profits [29][30]. - Eggs: The demand is falling after the holiday, and the supply is accumulating. The 06 contract is expected to be volatile at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish [31][32]. - Corn: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to substitutes [32]. - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. The long - term cost is increasing, and the price is expected to be strong. Short - selling on rallies in the short term and long - buying on dips in the long term are recommended [33][34]. - Oils: The short - term is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to support levels. Bean and rapeseed oils are expected to be stronger, and attention should be paid to the spread expansion of bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts [35][40].