油脂日报：利空因素叠加，油脂易跌难涨-20250508

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is cautiously bearish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the superposition of negative factors, the prices of oils and fats are more likely to fall than to rise. The supply of oils and fats is gradually recovering, while the demand remains weak, and the low - running crude oil prices also put significant pressure on the prices of oils and fats [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,914.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 60 yuan and a decline of - 0.75%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,786.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 26.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,335.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 119.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.29% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 120.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.39%. The spot basis was P09 + 616.00, with a环比 change of - 60.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 334.00, with a环比 change of - 16.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,490.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 120.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.28%. The spot basis was OI09 + 155.00, with a环比 change of + 1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market News - The July contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures closed down 65 ringgit, a decline of 1.71%, at 3,727 ringgit/ton (about 880.05 US dollars/ton). The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,028 US dollars/ton, down 52 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,008 US dollars/ton, down 47 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (July shipment) was 990 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 580 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) was 453 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) was 431 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) was 198 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (June shipment) was 175 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (June shipment) was 135 cents/bu, down 10 cents/bu from the previous trading day [2]