GGR与EBITDA利润率环比回落，但流水上升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.80 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's GGR and EBITDA margin have declined quarter-on-quarter, but the overall revenue has increased. The decline in GGR is attributed mainly to a decrease in win rates, particularly in the VIP segment. However, the company has reported an increase in turnover and stable market share, which contributed to a stock price increase of approximately 2% on May 7 [1][4]. - The company's Q1 2025 net revenue was USD 870 million, down 13% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 250 million, down 26% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 65% of the level in 2019 [1][2]. - The strong visitor flow during the May Day holiday is expected to support the recovery of the gaming business. Daily average visitors reached 170,000, significantly exceeding the tourism bureau's forecast [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) was USD 890 million, recovering to 61% of Q1 2019 levels, compared to the industry average of 76%. VIP gross revenue was USD 120 million, recovering to 15% of Q1 2019 levels, while mass market gross revenue was USD 710 million, recovering to 122% of Q1 2019 levels [2][4]. - The EBITDA margin for the company was 29.1%, compared to 30.9% in Q1 2019 and 34.0% in Q4 2024 [1][2]. Market Trends - The company is facing intensified competition in the gaming industry, with a noticeable trend towards individual customers. To adapt, the company is increasing the number of slot machines to enhance coverage of long-tail customers [3][4]. - The company plans to invest USD 700-800 million in 2025-2026 for the development of entertainment centers and performance projects to enhance the overall resort experience [3][4]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 6.80, reflecting a 7% discount based on the average EV/EBITDA of 8.4x for Hong Kong gaming companies. The adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced by 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively [4][5].