宝城期货原油早报-20250508

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the crude oil market is in a situation where bearish factors prevail, and the crude oil is expected to run weakly with a volatile and downward trend. The main reasons are the increasing supply and the relatively weak demand in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract ended its rebound on Wednesday night, with the price dropping significantly by 2.16% to 448.4 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday night [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2507 are all "volatile and weak", and the overall view is "weakly running" [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and the output of US shale oil is also growing steadily, which intensifies the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand: In May, the crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate maintains a stable and volatile trend, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5].