农产品日报：郑糖跟随原糖震荡下跌，棉价延续区间震荡-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral to bearish [6] 2. Core Views - Cotton: Although the macro - sentiment has improved, China is entering the consumption off - season and external demand is expected to decline. Short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The new - season cotton planting area in China is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but the planting side lacks obvious positive drivers. The later part of this year may face a tight supply situation, and the demand outlook is not optimistic, which restricts the upward space of domestic cotton prices [2][3]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase, which suppresses the upward space of raw sugar futures prices. In the long - term, if Brazil's weather is normal, the decline of raw sugar will solve China's sugar supply gap. China's sugar price fundamentals are relatively strong in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term trend will follow raw sugar [4][5]. - Pulp: As the off - season approaches, terminal demand is still pessimistic, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate. Macroeconomic uncertainties have a negative impact on pulp prices [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 12,900 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 13,839 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,100 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Market Information: In April, Vietnam's cotton textile production was 96 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 16.58% and a month - on - month increase of 3.72%; clothing production was 506 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 12.71% and a month - on - month increase of 2.04%. From January to April 2025, cotton textile production was 364 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 15.87%, and clothing production was 1.903 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: Diplomatic talks between China and the US and domestic financial policies have temporarily boosted market confidence. The April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, which is neutral to bearish. - International: The market has fully priced in the loose supply - demand pattern for the 24/25 global cotton market. The new - season cotton planting area in the US is expected to shrink, and the drought in production areas has worsened year - on - year, supporting the US cotton futures price to rebound slightly. However, the US cotton sowing progress has accelerated, and the drought has improved month - on - month, causing the outer market to decline after testing the resistance level of 70 cents/pound. - Domestic: The new - season cotton planting area in China is expected to be stable with a slight increase, and the planting side currently lacks obvious positive drivers. In March, China's cotton destocking speed accelerated significantly, and there is an expectation of tight supply in the later part of this year. The downstream new orders are insufficient, and textile enterprises purchase raw materials on - demand. The current yarn inventory is not high, and the pressure is temporarily not large. The impact of tariff policies on cotton consumption cannot be underestimated [2]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,868 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Market Information: Conab's first survey report on the 2025/26 sugar - cane production season shows that the sugar - cane output is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decrease from the previous year. The sugar - cane planting area in Brazil will increase slightly by 0.3% to 8.79 million hectares, and the unit yield is expected to be 75.41 tons/hectare, a 2.3% decrease from the previous season. Brazil's sugar output in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase to 45.9 million tons [3]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In the 24/25 season, the northern hemisphere's sugar production was lower than expected, and Brazil's inventory reached a historical low. After continuous declines, raw sugar demand has recovered, and there is short - term support at the bottom. However, the sugar - making ratio at the beginning of Brazil's new season reached a record high, and the market has priced in Brazil's production increase expectation in advance. - Zhengzhou sugar: China's sugar price is relatively resistant to decline compared to the outer market in April due to strong short - term fundamentals. The March production and sales data are favorable, and the short - term import volume of sugar is limited. The policies on syrup and premixed powder have been tightened, and the supply - demand gap has become the focus of the market. The continuous rainfall in Guangxi has limited improvement on the emergence rate of sugar - cane affected by the previous drought. In the long - term, China's sugar price will follow raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production and China's import rhythm [4][5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5,138 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton or 2.03% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 5,175 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased yesterday. The main contract price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined weakly, and wood pulp traders lowered the spot price of imported softwood pulp. The spot prices of some grades in various regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere of imported hardwood pulp was light, and the spot prices of some grades in various regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of imported natural pulp and imported chemimechanical pulp were weak, and the spot prices were stable [6]. Market Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff policy is unstable, and pulp prices are significantly affected by macro - sentiment. Although there are signs of improvement in Sino - US relations, macro - uncertainties are still high, and the impact on pulp prices is generally negative. - Supply: From January to March, China's pulp imports remained at a high level, and the supply was relatively loose. However, the arrival volume of imported pulp in April may decrease. Some foreign offers have been lowered, and the cost support has weakened. The inventory pressure at domestic ports is large, which suppresses the market price. - Demand: Although the raw material cost pressure has decreased after the continuous decline of pulp prices, the follow - up of terminal orders is average, the paper mills' shipment pressure has increased, and the downstream receiving sentiment has not improved. After May, the paper industry will enter the traditional off - season, and the tariff increase has intensified the market's pessimistic expectation. The price of base paper is expected to continue the weak trend, and the downstream profit improvement space may be limited [6].