FICC日报：现货报价仍然相对偏弱，关注中美关税周末会谈情况-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff - adding policy has significantly changed the US - bound shipping routes. Some shipping capacity from the US - bound routes has overflowed to the European and Mediterranean routes. If more ships from the US - bound routes are diverted to the European routes, the freight rates of the European routes will face pressure. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' capacity adjustment. [4] - It is necessary to closely monitor the possibility of Sino - US negotiations. If the two sides negotiate and reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have a positive impact on the European routes. Due to the frequent adjustment of tariff policies and high uncertainty, arbitrage is recommended for recent operations. [4] - The 06 contract still faces a weak reality, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price - increase expectations. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted from the US - bound routes to the European routes in June. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the European container shipping index futures was 101,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 108,379.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1291.40, 1182.60, 1288.20, 1559.60, 1287.90, and 1460.70 respectively. [5] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different weeks and months. For example, Maersk's Week 20 price is 974/1647, Week 21 is 885/1480; HPL's May shipment price is 1100/1700, and June is 1800/3000. [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on April 30 was 1200.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2272.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3283.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on May 5 was 1379.07 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1320.69 points. [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In May, the shipping capacity was gradually revised upwards. The weekly capacities in Week 20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. [2] - A total of 11 ships on the US - bound routes were diverted to the European routes, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted in June. [2] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU; 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU. [5] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical aspect: Yemeni Houthi officials stated that the cease - fire agreement did not include any direct talks with US officials. The US - Houthi cease - fire agreement mediated by Oman aimed to stop attacks on US ships. [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US tariff - adding policy has affected the shipping market. If Sino - US negotiations reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have an impact on the European routes. [4]