HDPI(SH:600027) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-08 03:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 26.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.14%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.896 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.01% [1][3]. - The decline in electricity generation and a slight decrease in electricity prices contributed to the revenue drop. The total electricity generation was 51.384 billion kWh, down approximately 8.51% year-on-year, and the average on-grid electricity price was about 505.71 yuan/MWh, a decrease of about 0.71% [2][3]. - The decrease in coal prices significantly improved the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 10.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average closing price of coal was 760 yuan/ton, down 164 yuan/ton year-on-year [3]. Financial Summary - The company plans to inject high-quality thermal power assets from its parent group, with the target assets having an operational installed capacity of approximately 16 GW, which will account for 26.85% of the company's total installed capacity by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report revises the profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating net profits attributable to the parent company at 6.4 billion yuan, 7 billion yuan, and 7.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.1, 8.4, and 8.0 [4]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue of 110.138 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of -2.53% [5][11].