中辉期货日刊-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Views - Crude Oil: In the expansion cycle, the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and they are in a callback and consolidation phase. Suggest a long - term view of supply surplus and a short - term view of narrow - range oscillations with a rebound - biased short position. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [1][3][4]. - LPG: It follows the cost side for oscillatory adjustments. In the long - term, it is bearish, and in the short - term, it is oscillatory. Suggest selling bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [1][8][9]. - L: The spot price is falling, with abundant supply and a weak oscillatory trend. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][12]. - PP: The basis is weakening, and the market is in a weak oscillatory state during the off - season. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][15]. - PVC: The market is in a contango structure, with limited upward momentum in the fundamentals and a weakening oscillatory trend. Short - term observation is recommended. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [1][17]. - PX: There is a supply - demand contraction, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to widen the px - sc spread is recommended. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [1][19]. - PTA/P - R: The supply - side pressure is relieved, but the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the ta - eg spread is recommended. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [1][22]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - side pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [1][25]. - Glass: The domestic loose monetary policy has limited impact on demand, and the market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [1][29]. - Soda Ash: The supply is abundant, and the growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down. The market is bearish in the medium - term. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [1][31]. - Methanol: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [1][32]. - Urea: Although the supply pressure is large, the fertilizer export growth is fast, and there is a bottom - support at the cost side. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1860 - 1920] [1]. - Asphalt: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to have a short - term rebound. BU is expected to be in the range of [3390 - 3450] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - 行情回顾: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 1.81% [2]. - 基本逻辑: OPEC+ started to increase production in April, and the increase rate exceeded expectations. The EIA estimated the global oil demand in 2025 to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 60 million barrels [3]. - 策略推荐: In the long - term, the supply is in surplus, and the oil price fluctuates between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [4]. LPG - 行情回顾: On May 7, the PG main contract closed at 4450 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - 基本逻辑: The upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and LPG's own fundamentals have few contradictions. The port inventory has increased, and the PDH operating rate has risen [8]. - 策略推荐: In the long - term, it is bearish. In the short - term, it is oscillatory. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - 行情回顾: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - 基本逻辑: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply is abundant. The agricultural film is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. - 策略推荐: Take short positions on rallies, and L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. PP - 行情回顾: The L - PP09 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - 基本逻辑: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the export of products is under pressure. The basis is weakening, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. - 策略推荐: Take short positions on rallies, and PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - 行情回顾: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - 基本逻辑: New production capacities have been added, and the supply is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the export is stable. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. - 策略推荐: Observe in the short - term, and V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. PX - 行情回顾: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton [18]. - 基本逻辑: PX devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is weakening, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to seize opportunities to widen the PX - SC spread. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [19]. - 策略推荐: PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [20]. PTA - 行情回顾: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton [21]. - 基本逻辑: PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is relatively good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to seize opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the TA - EG spread. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [22]. - 策略推荐: TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - 行情回顾: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton [24]. - 基本逻辑: Devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The to - port volume is high, and the demand side is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [25]. - 策略推荐: EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [26]. Glass - 行情回顾: The spot market quotation was stable, and the market was in a weak state. The basis in Shahe weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - 基本逻辑: The central bank's policies have limited impact on demand. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is improving slowly. The market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [29]. - 策略推荐: FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - 行情回顾: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, and the market was under pressure. The main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - 基本逻辑: Some soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may contract. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. - 策略推荐: SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. Methanol - 行情回顾: On April 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton [32]. - 基本逻辑: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has increased, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [32]. - 策略推荐: MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [33].